In the Democratic primaries, not much has changed in the last week. Abdullah is still the front-runner, with a nearly 3-in-5 chance of victory:
Here are the events-based simulation results. Note that I'm showing a different report than I showed you last time. This report includes the odds of each candidate winning the nomination; these are simply the number of times each candidate won the nomination in 100,000 simulated primaries.
Note that the events-based simulation gives Carpenter a much higher chance of winning the nomination than the basic, polls-based model. Meanwhile, Hancock has surged, winning 512 delegates in this week's best fit simulation, as opposed to 10 last week. Fairchild, Hillman, Underwood, and Knotts do much better, delegate-wise, than last week as well.
What is happening here? To be honest, I'm not entirely sure. None of those five candidates have had an especially good week; JULYSSA could be picking up random noise.
Meanwhile--there's been a poll including Harper Henry!!! In fact, only one (reputable) poll has included Henry in the week since she launched her candidacy. Oddly, two polls included possible candidates, but not Vickers' actual challenger!
To say Henry has long odds is a bit of an understatement! Indeed, in the best fit model for the convention, she receives no delegates at all. As mentioned in the post about her campaign launch, she is very similar to Vickers politically except in an area--polyamory--where her views don't match the party as a whole. JULYSSA knows this, and thus doesn't expect her to catch on.
The output for the general election simulations, I've realized, is a bit hard to read, so I need to clean it up before I post it. Stay tuned for those results!
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